THE 75TH ANNUAL ACADEMY AWARDS:
RETARDED PREDICTIONS AND PONTIFICATIONS

by Noel Wood

This morning at approximately 8:13 AM, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced their nominations for the 75th Annual Academy Awards. AMPAS President Frank Pierson and Oscar winner Marisa Tomei fielded the announcements which resulted in some records being tied and broken, as well as some other interesting choices.

The big leader this year was Rob Marshall’s CHICAGO, the big musical treat that’s sweeping the nation. It leads the pack with 13 moninations, including every eligible major award in the “big eight” except for one: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Adapted Screenplay (ineligible for Original Screenplay and Richard Gere failed to grab a best Actor nod). Pretty impressive feat, no?

Of course, ADAPTATION, GANGS OF NEW YORK, THE HOURS, LOTR: THE TWO TOWERS, and others are big contenders this year as well. Meryl Streep broke a record with her 13th best Actress nomination for her portrayal of Susan Orlean in ADAPTATION while Jack Nicholson tied Katharine Hepburn for most nominations for a lead at 12, thus setting a record for male leads. Julianne Moore pulled double-duty this year, nominated for both her lead in FAR FROM HEAVEN and her supporting role in THE HOURS.

Anyway, I’m ignoring the results of the Golden Globes this year, because after a few years of relevance, the last couple years have proven that their results don’t usually mean diddly when it comes to Oscar time anymore. I mean, Richard Gere got the shaft this year, and does anyone actually think THE HOURS has a chance for Best Picture? So here are my predictions. Enjoy, take with a grain of salt. Whatever. In most categories, I’ve also added my personal choice for the award, but since my opinion means nothing, you can just ignore that part of it.

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ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Adrien Brody
Nicolas Cage
Michael Caine
Daniel Day-Lewis
Jack Nicholson

Well, this category certainly yields no suprises this year. I’ve not seen THE QUIET AMERICAN or THE PIANIST, but the other three performances were top of the line. Tough call. Nicholson’s an Academy fave, but he may have too many Oscars under his belt. Cage’s past may hurt him, and the size of Lewis’ role is kind of a toss-up between lead and supporting actor, which may hurt him.
MY CHOICE: Daniel Day-Lewis.
MY PREDICTION: Jack Nicholson.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Chris Cooper
Ed Harris
Paul Newman
John C. Reilly
Christopher Walken

Another fairly predictable list. I’ve only seen ADAPTATION and CATCH ME IF YOU CAN so I can’t say much about the others. Reilly is an underappreciated talent but I don’t think the Academy is ready to honor him.

MY CHOICE: Chris Cooper.
MY PREDICTION: Chris Cooper.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Salma Hayek
Nicole Kidman
Diane Lane
Julianne Moore
Renée Zellweger

Well, per usual, all the women up for best lead are from chick flicks I haven’t seen, so I can’t say much about this one. But Salma Hayek is hot, so I’ll lean my favor her way. And the “pity Nicole” angle has to pay off somehow, right?

MY CHOICE: Salma Hayek
MY PREDICTION: Nicole Kidman.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Kathy Bates
Julianne Moore
Queen Latifah
Meryl Streep
Catherine Zeta-Jones

Pretty well-rounded choices here (and I’m just not making weight jokes for Bates or Latifah), although I can only vouch for Streep and Bates. I figure Chicago’s due some big wins, but Kathy Bates was pretty damn good in ABOUT SCHMIDT.

MY CHOICE: Kathy Bates
MY PREDICTION: Catherine Zeta-Jones

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

ICE AGE
LILO & STITCH
SPIRIT: STALLION OF THE CIMARRON
SPIRITED AWAY
TREASURE PLANET

I truly meant to see three of these films but never got around to it (SPIRITED AWAY didn’t even play here that I’m aware of.) I’m gonna say TP and SPIRIT are non-factors, and LILO was probably too weird for Academy voters.
MY CHOICE: SPIRITED AWAY
MY PREDICTION: SPIRITED AWAY

ART DIRECTION

CHICAGO
FRIDA
GANGS OF NEW YORK
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE TWO TOWERS
ROAD TO PERDITION

CHICAGO looks to be the big winner this year, so I’d say it has a good chance to nail this. GANGS was fucking beautiful though, and it’ll be a damn shame if it doesn’t win.
MY CHOICE: GANGS OF NEW YORK
MY PREDICTION: CHICAGO

CINEMATOGRAPHY

CHICAGO
FAR FROM HEAVEN
GANGS OF NEW YORK
THE PIANIST
ROAD TO PERDITION

Okay, there’s no way in hell GANGS can’t win this, is there? I mean, I haven’t seen the others yet, but there’s no way, right?
MY CHOICE: GANGS OF NEW YORK
MY PREDICTION: GANGS OF NEW YORK

COSTUME DESIGN

CHICAGO
FRIDA
GANGS OF NEW YORK
THE HOURS
THE PIANIST

A lot of period pieces this year, but nothing that was too extravagant as far as costuming goes, so it’s kind of a toss-up here.
MY CHOICE: GANGS OF NEW YORK
MY PREDICTION: CHICAGO

DIRECTING

CHICAGO
GANGS OF NEW YORK
THE HOURS
THE PIANIST
TALK TO HER

Two films here didn’t make it to Best Picture nominations, which is unusual. I think the Academy is gonna have to give Scorcese an award before too long, or else he’s gonna have his boys whack somebody. This has to be his year, much like Peter Jackson’s may well be next year.
MY CHOICE: GANGS OF NEW YORK
MY PREDICTION: GANGS OF NEW YORK

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

BOWLING FOR COLUMBINE
DAUGHTER FROM DANANG
PRISONER OF PARADISE
SPELLBOUND
WINGED MIGRATION

Yeah. Anyone who doesn’t know what’s gonna win here has been asleep for the last 6 months.

MY CHOICE: BOWLING FOR COLUMBINE
MY PREDICTION: BOWLING FOR COLUMBINE

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

THE COLLECTOR OF BEDFORD STREET
MIGHTY TIMES: THE LEGACY OF ROSA PARKS
TWIN TOWERS
WHY CAN’T WE BE A FAMILY AGAIN?

Hellifiknow. Nobody sees these things outside of Academy voters. We’ll go for whatever seems politically and/or socially relevant, which I guess narrows us down to 9/11 or Miss Rosa.

MY PREDICTION: MIGHTY TIMES: THE LEGACY OF ROSA PARKS

FILM EDITING

CHICAGO
GANGS OF NEW YORK
THE HOURS
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE TWO TOWERS
THE PIANIST

I haven’t seen but a couple of them, but just the laborious effort of putting together the three hours of goodness that is THE TWO TOWERS definitely deserves it an award.

MY CHOICE: THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE TWO TOWERS
MY PREDICTION: THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE TWO TOWERS

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

EL CRIMEN DEL PADRE AMARO
HERO
THE MAN WITHOUT A PAST
NOWHERE IN AFRICA
ZUS & ZO

Well, here’s a suprise. The three most high-profile foreign language films of the year, Y TU MAMA TAMBIEN, TALK TO HER, and CITY OF GOD, didn’t even garner a nod, even though two of them got nominated elsewhere. So this is totally a crapshoot at this point. Eeny, Meeny, Miny, Mo.
MY PREDICTION: THE MAN WITHOUT A PAST

MAKEUP

FRIDA
THE TIME MACHINE

Okay, we have something that was critically acclaimed and something that was a big ass flop. They could have at least put MEN IN BLACK II, which sucked but had some good makeup effects.

MY PREDICTION: FRIDA

MUSIC (SCORE)

CATCH ME IF YOU CAN
FAR FROM HEAVEN
FRIDA
THE HOURS
ROAD TO PERDITION

The CATCH ME score was a lot of fun and uppity and a lot different from the rest of John Williams’ work. It’s also the only one I saw. He’s also the biggest hitter here, so I’ll stick with that.

MY CHOICE: CATCH ME IF YOU CAN
MY PREDICTION: CATCH ME IF YOU CAN

MUSIC (SONG)

CHICAGO
8 MILE
FRIDA
GANGS OF NEW YORK
THE WILD THORNBERRYS MOVIE

The Academy may want to seem hip by putting Eminem up for this award, but there’s no way he’ll walk out with an Oscar. As much as I love GONY, that dull U2 song has no business here. I think the musical takes this one in a wash.

MY CHOICE: 8 MILE
MY PREDICTION: CHICAGO

BEST PICTURE

CHICAGO
GANGS OF NEW YORK
THE HOURS
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE TWO TOWERS
THE PIANIST

It’s the big one! Well, I for one was let down that my favorite film of the year, ADAPTATION, missed out here, but I hardly expected anything being so critical of the movie industry to get nominated. And thank god they didn’t do the token indie comedy and nominate MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING here, because I was this close to taking a hostage by the time that film was out of theaters. I hear THE HOURS is overrated, and THE PIANIST was just too small a movie to make it. TOWERS ruled, but it just doesn’t have the stuff the Academy wants. Of course, the Musical is gonna be hard to beat, especially with mixed reviews for GANGS.

MY CHOICE: GANGS OF NEW YORK
MY PREDICTION: CHICAGO

SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)

THE CATHEDRAL
THE CHUBBCHUBBS!
DAS RAD
MIKE’S NEW CAR
MT. HEAD

Since there was no PIXAR movie short in front of a Disney film, then that means none of these were seen by the public. So, you know, go with gut.

MY PREDICTION: THE CATHEDRAL

SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)

FAIT D’HIVER
I’LL WAIT FOR THE NEXT ONE… (J’ATTENDRAI LE SUIVANT…)
INJA (DOG)
JOHNNY FLYNTON
THIS CHARMING MAN (DER ER EN YNDIG MAND)

More shorts that were pretty much unseen by the majority of people in America. Whatever. I do, however, have a favorite Smiths song.

MY PREDICTION: THIS CHARMING MAN (DER ER EN YNDIG MAND)

SOUND
CHICAGO
GANGS OF NEW YORK
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE TWO TOWERS
ROAD TO PERDITION
SPIDER-MAN

Well, I guess I saw LOTR in a huge goddamn theater with stadium seating and THX sound, so I’m partial to it winning. My experience with SPIDER-MAN was in a smaller theater and in a drive-in, and GOTY a medium theater. So I can only base this on what I know.

MY CHOICE: THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE TWO TOWERS
MY PREDICTION: THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE TWO TOWERS

SOUND EDITING
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE TWO TOWERS
MINORITY REPORT
ROAD TO PERDITION

I really have never had any way to guage this category, so I’ll just predict without pontification.

MY PREDICTION: MINORITY REPORT

VISUAL EFFECTS
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE TWO TOWERS
SPIDER-MAN
STAR WARS EPISODE II ATTACK OF THE CLONES

Three fucking beautiful movies, although I would have replaced SPIDER-MAN (which did look a little campy in places) with the breathtaking MINORITY REPORT. Still, You gotta give it up for Coruscant.

MY CHOICE: STAR WARS EPISODE II ATTACK OF THE CLONES
MY PREDICTION: STAR WARS EPISODE II ATTACK OF THE CLONES

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
ABOUT A BOY
ADAPTATION
CHICAGO

THE HOURS
THE PIANIST

My favorite film of the year was easily the best-written one, and I think me and the Academy are going to agree on that. I just think it’s awesome that a figment of Charlie Kaufman’s imagination is going to be an Academy Award winner.
MY CHOICE: ADAPTATION
MY PREDICTION: ADAPTATION

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
FAR FROM HEAVEN
GANGS OF NEW YORK
MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING
TALK TO HER
Y TU MAMÁ TAMBIÉN

Well, the two disappearing foriegn language films appear here but not in their own category. Strange. I have to say that Scorcese’s 25-year old script is bound to get honored in some way, so I’m going with it.

MY CHOICE: GANGS OF NEW YORK
MY PREDICTION: GANGS OF NEW YORK

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Well, there you have it. I didn’t put much time, effort, or thought into the process of making my predictions, but I figured it was worth wasting an hour or so of my time to put this out there so you can all call me a rube who knows nothing about the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences and hasn’t seen nearly enough films this year to make any valued decisions and really doesn’t know when to stop when he’s making a run-on-sentence. Feel free to call me on it when the actual awards roll around next month.